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Proposals to abolish the (central) government bond market is one of the striking features of Modern Monetary Theory. In the current context, it is debatable how much difference that such a change would make. I avoid attempting to be a forecaster, but it is safe to say that it would not be a true “surprise” if developed economy policy rates remained below 1% for a good portion of the 2023s. (This observation is consistent with bond market pricing at the time of writing.). This is a basic extrapolation of behaviour of past cycles. This time could be different, but it is no surprise if it is not. Meanwhile, some neoclassical economists are agitating for negative policy rates, which makes the MMT proposal look much more sensible by contrast.

(Note: This is an unedited draft from my upcoming MMT primer. Most of the controversy around this subject is dealt with elsewhere in the text. I have kept this short, as it is covered already in "Understanding Government Finance".)

Is The Price Of Gold Telling Us Something?

Gold prices have been rising in a parabolic fashion again, and catching some interest. If one owns gold, congratulations. One of the usual ways to fill up column inches in commentary is to discuss what information about the economy and/or financial markets gold is providing. The most likely answer is that portfolio managers feel that other portfolio managers want to buy gold, so they hopped on the bandwagon. This offers us zero useful information for the macroeconomic outlook.

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The Job Guarantee is a programme that offers all citizens willing to work for it a guaranteed wage – which becomes the de facto minimum wage in the economy. It creates a floor for incomes and working conditions. It also gives the government a workforce that can undertake non-time sensitive projects. (Permanent government jobs and most infrastructure jobs would be unaffected.) The implementation of the programme would be country-specific, as the objective would be to re-use existing job seeking infrastructure. The central government would pay the workers and oversee the programme, but local governments and non-profits would likely be the employers, at least in larger countries.

Note: This is an unedited draft from my upcoming Manuscript. Rather than write a review of Pavlina R. Tcherneva's The Case for a Job Guarantee, I have created my summary of that text.

Changing Budgetary Procedures: Outline Of The MMT Approach

Although most discussion of reforms associated with MMT are in the areas in upcoming sections of this chapter, the first thing that must be understood is that MMT proponents argue that the framework for analysing fiscal policy needs to be changed. The title of the article “市场部年度工作计划_百度文库:2021-3-5 · 本市场推广奖励的发放条件： 1. 经销商市场推广行为的计划及核销符合上海大众区域销售管理科 SSR 及地区销 售服务中心相关规定。 2. 三种经销商市场推广活动类型比例， 由各销售服务中心自行制定并于每年 1 月、 6 月上报区域销售管理科 SSR。 3.” by Scott Fullwiler summarises the change perfectly.

NOTE: This is a very preliminary unedited draft from a section of my manuscript. I am putting it up somewhat early as I wanted to get feedback. I have spent very little time cleaning up the text, and so it will probably be tweaked heavily.

Banks And MMT: J.W. Mason's Comments

J.W. Mason wrote a review of Stephanie Kelton's The Deficit Myth. For my purposes, I am looking at various critiques of MMT, and he makes some statements about banking that are of interest.

Note: My publication schedule is likely to remain erratic. I added in primers that were previously written, and the word count of my MMT manuscript has hit 29,000 words (and my target was 20,000-25,000 words). I am now mainly editing and cutting text, with only a few sections to be written.

The Drift To Austerity (Manuscript Excerpt)

Debates about fiscal policy and government debt are arguably what created most of the publicity for Modern Monetary Theory. After the Financial Crisis of 2008, government debt-to-GDP ratios rose, which was a greater concern in the euro area as there was a limit on that ratio within the Maastricht treaty. At the same time, there was popular anger at bank bailouts across the political spectrum – bankers caused the crisis, and then were bailed out by governments. This free-floating anger attached to worries about government debt. As a result, governments implemented austerity packages, which typically consisted of cutting spending on social welfare programmes.

Although this debate helps explain the rise of MMT, one could argue that the consensus has drifted in the direction of MMT. Moreover, the fact that MMTers have been pushing for looser fiscal policy for some time is well known. As such, I am keeping this treatment relatively brief.

[Note: This is an unedited excerpt from my manuscript that discusses MMT and how it relates to the post-virus recovery. This is a section discussing why previous expansions were slow-moving affairs, and hence is largely backward looking.]

New Book Update

My MMT primer is chugging along. It is organised around a theme discussing the upcoming recovery after COVID-19 is vanquished (which may or may not be too optimistic a view on the pandemic). It is currently 16,000 words, without counting a few primers on fiscal policy I wrote in January/February.

My objective is to keep the text short, so that it acts a minimal length primer, aimed at readers who have some background in economics. I cannot promise any particular publishing date, but I hope for a quick turnaround. My publishing schedule is going to be somewhat more erratic, as I put up sections as I complete them.

Since I am focusing on this piece, my articles are going to remain MMT-centric. Once it is completed, I will be somewhat more eclectic in topics, as I expect to get back to Recessions: Volume II.

I am doing an experiment with the format: I have eliminated footnotes/endnotes. Although I enjoy making sarcastic remarks in footnotes, they disrupt the workflow for publication. By having straight text only, my non-Amazon distributor software allows for straight Word to EPUB conversion. This will allow near-simultaneous ebook release; paperback will still come after a delay. The ebook will be at an attractive entry price point, but the overhead costs of printing implies that the paperback price will end up closer to my other books.